Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
